CINCINNATI — If you're dreaming of a White Christmas, here's a number to know: 16% - that's the percentage chance we have to see a White Christmas this year.
Snow on Christmas morning is a Hollywood staple that is depicted in pretty much any Christmas movie, every Christmas greeting card and holiday-time commercial But it really isn’t “just like the one I used to know" for Cincinnati as the chances of seeing those treetops glisten isn't very high.
The definition of a White Christmas, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. local time Christmas Day. By this definition, there have only been 17 instances of a White Christmas in Cincinnati dating back to 1916, or just about 16% of the time.
The National Weather Service map below shows a breakdown, by percentage, of how likely areas around Cincinnati are to experience a White Christmas.
If you zoom out to the rest of the country, those along the Rockies, as well as those furthest north, have the greatest statistical chance of seeing snow on the ground Christmas morning.
Because this measurement is about that 1-inch of snow depth, it does not mean that this is fresh snow. That measured snow could have been on the ground for days, but it just has to be one inch or greater. The last time that we observed a White Christmas in Cincinnati was back in 2017. The most snow we have ever seen for Christmas morning was 2004 when we had nine inches of snow on the ground. While the all-time probability is low at 16%, the last 30 years have been slightly better sitting at 20%. That is still only a 1 in 5 chance, but it is a little more promising.
The good news for White Christmas lovers: If we look at data that shows snowflakes of any sort, then the probability jumps way higher. In 129 years worth of data, we have seen at least a trace of snow on Christmas day 55 times. That is still less than 50/50, but at 43% it is a little more promising.
Christmas is now less than two weeks away and that means our forecast window is becoming clearer. Trying to forecast precipitation past 7 days out generally is a crapshoot and usually proves to be very inaccurate. With that said as of right now, all of the long-term computer models limit snow for the Tri-State and it doesn’t look too promising for snow lovers. More good news: There is still plenty of time for that to change.
In order for us to see snow, we would need some cold air to come through, which isn’t something we have seen much of to start December. As a whole, the first 10 days of December have averaged 3.4 degrees warmer than normal. However, the current outlook shows that the week before Christmas is likely to bring well BELOW normal temperatures to much of the U.S., including here in the Tri-State. That doesn’t guarantee that we will see snow, but it’s a start, right?
Unfortunately, even with time to change, history tells us that it looks like we will be snowless for Christmas once again… unless we get a Christmas miracle. Either way, I hope your days are merry and bright.
