A potential tropical cyclone approaching the Gulf of Mexico is expected to intensify into a hurricane and reach land on Florida's Gulf Coast Thursday.
The storm is forecast to intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane by Thursday evening, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The agency announced a tropical storm watch Monday for the extreme southern reaches of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and the Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge. Tropical storm conditions were possible in the region within the next 48 hours.
The disturbance on Monday was some 315 miles southeast of western Cuba, with maximum winds 35 miles per hour. It was forecast to pass between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba on Tuesday.
The system does not yet have a name because it has not gained tropical storm strength.
But the system is forecast to gain strength as it passes over warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico. For now it is expected to reach hurricane strength by Wednesday, and is forecast to be a major hurricane by the time it approaches land near Florida.
The exact path and location of the storm as it makes landfall is not yet known, but forecasters say "the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area tonight or Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place."
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"While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening," wrote National Hurricane Center forecaster Brad Reinhart.
Hurricane Hunters will investigate the storm's potential later Monday.
So far in 2024, the Atlantic hurricane season has produced seven named tropical system, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane. Just two weeks ago, Hurricane Francine came ashore in Louisiana as a Category 2 system.
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The next system to form in the Atlantic would be given the name Helene.
