9 First Warning Weather Alert Day Sunday: Timing out our severe weather threat

Sunday brings the Tri-State it's biggest severe weather risk of 2025, to date, making it 9 First Warning Weather Alert Day.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an ENHANCED RISK for severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening. This is category 3 out of 5, for severe weather. All forms of severe weather will be possible with these storms, including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. Flooding is a possibility as well. Below is a breakdown of everything you need to know, along with what we can expect.

TIMING
Our window for severe weather opens as early as 4 to 5 p.m. on Sunday. However, the better likelihood is that we will see storms move in more so after 6 p.m. The initial wave looks as though it could be isolated supercells, which would pose the greatest risk for all forms of severe weather. These storms would be most likely between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m.

From there, the storms will become more linear in the form of a squall line. This poses a great straight-line wind threat along with isolated spin-up tornadoes. These will pick up closer to midnight for most areas and move west to east.

The main line of storms will finally move out of the area closer to 2 a.m., and that is when the threat will end.

IMPACTS
Sunday's severe weather threat will include all forms of severe weather. That means damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. However, of the three, wind is the biggest threat for the entire Tri-State.

As seen in the graphic above, the entire Tri-State is included in a "Hatched" area for severe winds. That means that any point on the map is in a greater potential to see wind gusts of 75+ mph within a severe storm. Additionally, large hail is possible as well, with areas of the Tri-State in that hatched area. That would indicate a greater likelihood of 2" in diameter hail, if not larger, in these areas. Lastly, the tornado threat is also hatched in southeast Indiana, which indicates a greater chance for EF2-EF5 strength tornadoes. If you have any outdoor lawn furniture or equipment that can become projectiles, you may want to make sure those are securely in place or bring them inside.

Another thing to watch is that we have the chance for 1 to 3 inches of rain in some of these areas, which could mean some localized flooding, especially in the heaviest rain storms.

LIMITING FACTORS
As it is with every severe weather event, we have a few factors that will make or break our severe threat on Sunday. The first of which is midday rain. The latest projections still show some light to moderate rainfall lasting through midday on Sunday and into the afternoon. In an event like this, these showers would actually lower our atmospheric energy. The later the midday rain lasts and the heavier it is, the better off we are moving into the evening. However, if they aren't as significant and we see earlier clearing, that will aid in adding energy to the atmosphere for future storms to feed off of.

The other factor, believe it or not, would be low-level moisture. A few days ago the dewpoints (the number measuring moisture in our atmosphere) were projected to stay into the mid to upper 50s, which would not be as favorable for severe weather. However, in recent days, it looks like those numbers may make the low 60s. In that case, that would be sufficient low-level moisture for severe storms to thrive. So pay attention to the humidity on Sunday, the lower it stays, the better off we are.

FROM NOW UNTIL THE EVENT
Overnight will bring some scattered showers with some rumbles of thunder as well. Temperatures only dip into the upper 50s and low 60s because of this. Winds stay strong overnight as well, gusting from the south at 15 to 20 mph.

Sunday will be warm and breezy all day long. Our high will make it to 72° with wind gusts from the south as strong as 35 mph. There will be those isolated showers through late morning and into the early afternoon before the big wave comes in.

AFTER THE EVENT
The front will pass early in the morning on Monday, which will clear out most of the rain, but also drop temperatures quickly. Monday's official high will be shortly after midnight, but the temperatures you feel for the afternoon are more likely to be in the upper 40s and low 50s. Then all eyes turn to Wednesday as we are already placed in SPC's outlook for another round of strong and severe storms Wednesday evening into early Thursday. Stay alert!

TONIGHT
Showers moving in
A few isolated storms
Low: 59

SUNDAY
Morning & midday showers
Strong storms, potentially severe, later on
High: 72

TONIGHT
Severe threat past midnight
Falling temperatures
Low: 49

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