Wednesday and Thursday are 9 FIRST WARNING WEATHER ALERT DAYS
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed our entire area in an "ENHANCED RISK" of severe storms for Wednesday night. This is the same category we were in for Sunday's severe weather, which produced multiple tornadoes and storm damage. An Enhanced Risk is level 3 of 5, and usually means there will be numerous severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, along with several intense storms.
This is all part of an active pattern that will also bring us a threat for severe weather again on Thursday. The SPC also has parts of the Tri-State within a "SLIGHT" risk for severe storms on Thursday.
IMPACTS
With Wednesday's severe weather threat, all forms of severe weather are possible: Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. However, the two greatest concerns are tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. SPC's outlook for each threat has us in the "hatched" area for both tornadoes and wind. What that means is that we are in an area with a greater probability for a significant event. In regards to tornadoes, that means we have a greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes. For damaging winds, we have a greater probability of 75+ mph gusts.
While large hail is still possible, it would be placed lower on the severity index at this point in time. However, there will still be storms that may produce one-inch hail.
TIMING:
The timing with this system is still the biggest question to answer over the next 24 hours, however, the trends are starting to line up. This will all be dependent on the speed of the storms as they move east, as well as where they initially develop, but the current expectations are listed below.
- 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. - Storms move from Indianapolis to our SE Indiana counties
- 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. - Storms move into the Cincinnati metro; severe storms expected
- 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. - Storms slowly move east and southeast, impacting locations east of I-75
Unfortunately, the strongest storms will be moving through the area as many people will be asleep, or at least trying to sleep. It is imperative that you have multiple ways to get your warnings, especially in an event like this. There will also likely be power outages due to this, so make sure your devices are charged up. Download the WCPO 9 app here.
FLOODING THREAT:
The system that enters the Tri-State on Wednesday night will stall out over the Ohio Valley, and we'll end up with rounds of rainfall from that point through Sunday afternoon. Because of that, the National Weather Service has issued a FLOOD WATCH for the entire Tri-State, which is in effect from 8 p.m. Wednesday through 8 a.m. Sunday.
This is all part of an active pattern that will also bring us a threat for severe weather again on Thursday. The SPC also has parts of the Tri-State within a "SLIGHT RISK" for severe storms on Thursday.
Over the four day period, it is likely that much of the Tri-State will see between 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, if not more. The most conservative models still have much of the area seeing 5 inches of rain over that stretch, with the more aggressive models nearly double that.
Due to all of this rain, in addition to the 3/4 of an inch to 1 inch of rain many areas saw this past Sunday, we will likely see all forms of flooding. Within some of the strongest storms, we will see some flash flooding potential. With the long-term rainfall we will likely see some gradual flooding along with rapidly rising river levels. We will likely see river flooding last through the weekend and into parts of next week. Now is the time to start making sure all of your drains are clear of debris and leftover leaves from the fall, along with waterproofing your house to the best of your ability.
UNTIL THE EVENT
We will stay mostly cloudy overnight with temperatures falling into the mid-40s. Winds from the southeast will build at 10 to 15 mph, which will be the precursor to Wednesday's windy day, where a WIND ADVISORY is out starting at 10 am because gusts could reach 50mph.
Wednesday will be a warm and windy day. Temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 70s with partly cloudy skies. There will be a chance of an isolated shower or two through the late morning and early afternoon, the day should stay predominantly dry.
OVERNIGHT
Mostly Cloudy
Milder
Low: 46
WEDNESDAY
Clouds build, warm and windy, spotty storms
Late-day storms, severe storms possible
High: 78
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Severe storms
Very heavy rainfall
Low: 59
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