CINCINNATI -- Having a tough time buying into the Bengals?
Below are nine reasons you should ... and shouldn't.
Nobody saw a 3-1 start coming. Some of the experts said 2-2 would be startling. Most had the Bengals finishing no better than 7-9, and a few had them cratering to 4-12.
That's the trouble with predictions. They're made in the vacuum of an offseason when there's nothing else to write or say. A couple of injuries here, a few interceptions there and a couple of blocked punts later, and nobody is right.
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong, or so David Crosby sang all those years ago.
Three wins in four games does not a season make. But for those who want a reason to believe, and for those who know that heartbreak with the Bengals is just around every corner, I offer reasons for both.
1. Andy Dalton is morphing into Ben Roethlisberger.
The only time you hear those two names mentioned in the same story is usually a variation of "Ben Roethlisberger outplayed Andy Dalton again."
Not this year. Look at what Dalton is doing.
Like his "big brother" in Pittsburgh, Dalton is extending plays and rumbling for first downs. (He's faster than Roethlisberger is, but so is your refrigerator.) Like Big Ben in his prime, Dalton has become better at spotting secondary and tertiary wide receivers. Like Roethlisberger, Dalton can fire the ball in just over two seconds. And each has led their teams to double-digit fourth-quarter comeback wins.
Both are leaders. And both have shown an infuriating ability to throw interceptions at the worst possible times. Dalton would be lucky to quarterback the Bengals to two Super Bowl titles as Roethlisberger has done with the Steelers.
Dalton is back to being like the player he was in 2014-15. So, for the moment, you can believe.
2. It's not all about A.J. Green anymore.
The new "go-to guy" is now Tyler Boyd. You want a first down? That's your guy.
Boyd already has 26 receptions this season. He had just 102 in his first two seasons as a Bengal. Dalton threw Boyd's way 11 times on Sunday against the Falcons. (And by the way, is that the worst excuse for a defense you've seen in a long time?) The most times Dalton had sought out Boyd before Sunday was seven.
Now, a lot of that probably was due to the Falcons paying extra attention to Green. But the second receiver the Bengals have been searching for, the "threat" to take pressure off Green, they may have found. With Tyler Eifert out again, Boyd's performance in the 12 games to come might be critical to the Bengals' playoff chances.
3. Joe Mixon is returning soon, and without him the Bengals' offense is like night and day.
The sample size on Mixon is light. But he appears to be the dominant running back the Bengals have been lacking since Rudi Johnson left in 2007. Without getting too ahead of the coronation, Mixon might just approach what Corey Dillon did while he was with the Bengals. Though their running styles are different, and the NFL has become a pass-and-catch league over the last 15 seasons, Mixon can be to the Bengals what Le'Veon Bell has been to the Steelers. Mixon has Bell's patience while waiting for blocks, and he has the explosiveness that both Johnson and Dillon had. If the Bengals had Mixon on the field against the Carolina Panthers, they could be 4-0 right now.
4. The Bengals are averaging 31 points a game with a makeshift offensive line.
Their first-round draft pick is out. And when Billy Price will return, and at effectively full strength, is still a question. Right guard Alex Redmond had no need to shower after a game until Week 16 in 2017. The right tackle, Bobby Hart, has shown ample reason why the New York Giants gave up on him after last season. And yet the Bengals have protected Dalton fairly well, allowing just seven sacks in four games. Remember, Dalton was planted 80 times in the past two seasons. If the number holds, the Bengals are on pace for 28 quarterback sacks allowed this season. In 2017, 28 sacks allowed would have placed the Bengals fifth best. To be sure, some mighty defenses await the Bengals. But this may be the most encouraging thing about the 2018 season, so far.
5. Vontaze Burfict will return Sunday.
Look, whether because of suspension or injury, if you get nine to 12 games out of Burfict, it's a good season. But when he's on the field and healthy, he is a major plus for the Bengals' defense.
Burfict is an emotional leader. Sure, he's too emotional at times -- most leaders are. But besides his leadership vocally, he will settle down a position that has been less than impactful so far this season. Check the stats: Bengals linebackers make a lot of tackles. But where are the plays? Nick Vigil, Hardy Nickerson and Jordan Thomas have no interceptions, no forced fumbles and no fumble recoveries through this season's first four games. Only Preston Brown has managed to come up with a "pick." (And Carl Lawson is more of a defensive end than a linebacker. It's tough to put him in this group.)
Burfict creates havoc, and havoc leads to turnovers. Have you seen the way opposing offenses have hurt the Bengals with underneath routes? Burfict won't solve that problem on his own, but he's savvy enough to make sure everyone is lined up correctly. That will go a long way in fixing the problem.
The Bengals have allowed an average of 28 points per game through four games. Down the stretch, the Bengals need to create turnovers and then control the clock with their running game. Burfict will help a lot with the former.
6. So much for 'Believe-Nati' -- now to 'Reality-Nati.'
Let's start with the AFC North. The Steelers look old and in disarray. It's not so much the Bell situation as it is that there are no playmakers on their defense. It was evident to anyone paying attention that Ryan Shazier's injury needed to be addressed in this offseason. The Steelers can't outscore every team to win games. They have all the indications of a 7-9 team, at best, this season.
The Bengals already have a win over the Ravens, but Baltimore's defense is very good. Quarterback Joe Flacco's body language in last month's game against the Bengals was horrid. He seemed disinterested, and it's not the kind of leadership I'd want out of that position. He's just about a .500 quarterback since signing a huge contract after the Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2013. But the Ravens will win a lot of games this season. Like the Bengals, they're 3-1. The game in Baltimore on Nov. 18 may be the biggest game the Bengals play all season. (And yes, I know they play in Kansas City in three weeks.) But to win a division title, the Bengals will have to sweep the Ravens. One down, one to go.
7. I said it in June, and I'll say it now: The AFC North team that avoids a loss in Cleveland will win the division.
OK, so two teams can still do that: the Bengals and Ravens.
The Browns are a vastly different team this season compared to last. They could be 4-0 right now. They had the New Orleans Saints on the ropes and lost in overtime; the Browns' kicker cost them that game. They had the Steelers beaten and should have won in OT, but they killed themselves with a penalty deep inside Pittsburgh territory and settled for a tie. And a lousy call (and I'm not a Browns fan nor had money on the game) cost them a win at Oakland. Even Jon Gruden had to think about that when his alarm went off at 3:17 a.m. Monday.
The Browns' defense is good. Larry Ogunjobi is off to a great start, with three sacks and three tackles for loss. Rookie Denzel Ward already has a couple of interceptions. And on offense, Baker Mayfield has energized the team. He's a rookie and he'll make mistakes. He's a gambler, cut from the same cloth as Brett Favre, and will do things that will cost his team. But he has Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins to throw to, and running back Carlos Hyde takes a lot of pressure off the Browns' passing attack.
The Browns will win five or six games this season. If one of those is against the Ravens or Bengals, that will have a huge impact on who wins the AFC North.
8. And then there's that game at Kansas City.
It's only one of 16, but if the Bengals make it to the playoffs, most likely they'll have to play at Kansas City again. Patrick Mahomes is getting most of the attention for the Chiefs' fast start. He's good, very good. But the Chiefs are more than that. Kareem Hunt is one of the best running backs in the NFL. Tyreek Hill is one of the fastest. And is there a better tight end in football right now than Travis Kelce? (Sorry, Gronk.)
Can the Bengals win this game? Sure. But if they are playing in January, pay close attention to this game on Oct. 21. It'll give you a good idea of how things could play out in early 2019.
9. Three of the last four games are on the road.
It's hard to win road games in the NFL. There's a trip out to Los Angeles late in this season to play the Chargers. And you know how it has gone in the past when the Bengals jet west.
There is the aforementioned trip to Cleveland, the second-to-last game of the 2018 season. Then the Bengals will finish at Pittsburgh. Will the Steelers have the cars packed with motors running while playing that game? My guess is, whatever stock the Steelers have in that game, they'll give the Bengals their best.
The Ravens have to play two of their final four games on the road. One of those games is at Kansas City and the other is a trip out west to play the Chargers.
But scheduling won't determine who wins the AFC North. Health will. More than half of the 32 NFL teams have suffered a debilitating injury to one of their players. We know, of course, what losing Eifert will mean to the Bengals. And that's why preseason predictions are so silly. I've said it before and will again: If you can tell me which team will be the healthiest in December, I'll tell you who will win games. And, honestly, that applies now.
One quarter of a season does not a season make. It is merely an indication of what may lie ahead. The road so far, for the Bengals, has been good. But peril lies ahead, most of it unknown. We'll see where things stand eight games into the season.
I'll get back to you in about a month.
Now then ...
- Joe Maddon could be 'out' in Chicago? Great, send him here. ...
- Professional linksters fighting? If there's video, I will definitely watch. ...
- Wow, bet this took a lot of thought. Now if the Lakers could've gotten just a bit more talent to complement LeBron James, who knows how good this season might be. ...
One of the most electrifying albums was released 41 years ago this week. It was "Out Of The Blue," by the Electric Light Orchestra.
ELO, with Jeff Lynne fronting, was one of the most cutting-edge bands of its time. Too often passed off early in its career as simply a Beatles wannabe band, ELO's Lynne took the risk of marrying strings with a rock 'n' roll band. It worked in record sales and critical acclaim. ELO finally made it into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame in 2017.
But this album, released on Oct. 3, 1977, took ELO to new heights. It was the band's seventh studio album and spawned three monster hits: "Turn to Stone," "Sweet Talking Woman" and this ...
ELO is now known as Jeff Lynne's ELO and just completed a short but hugely successful tour of the United States. The band closed every concert with this song.
By the way, the "cowbell" effect that drummer Bev Bevan uses in this song? He is actually hitting a fire extinguisher that was in the studio to create the sound.
It's how hits are made.
