This article was updated after a massive amount of Twitter replies. See the addition to the original article at the bottom.
Baseball is hard. And it's never been harder than in the modern era of analytics with video tracking every at-bat, stolen base and fielded grounder.
For the majority of talented young players coming up, there's usually a period of several weeks — maybe a couple of months — when they look great. Despite their raw talent, a big reason for that success is a lack of film and stats tracking the players' strengths and weaknesses: Opposing teams don't know their tendencies very well, and thus, don't know how to plan for them.
The Cincinnati Reds have a roster full of these young players — guys who have recently been called up to the big leagues, and many of whom are finding out just how hard it is to stay there. Such is the plight of Elly De La Cruz.
One stat tells you most of what you need to know about Elly's first season: His batting average month-by-month since being called up to the Reds.
June: .308
July: .238
August: .198
September: .161 (Through Sept. 20)
De La Cruz came in like a lightning bolt. He set records for the hardest hit ball, the fastest assist in the infield and the quickest feet on the base path. He created such buzz that they even put him in a commercial for the new Mission Impossible movie.
RELATED | Reds rookie Elly De La Cruz hits for cycle to help Cincinnati to 12th straight win
With so much attention on him, scouting him got accelerated around the league. De La Cruz stopped seeing fastballs quicker than some of the MLB's top stars.
According to Baseball Savant, it took teams four years to throw New York Yankees star Aaron Judge fastballs less than 50% of the time. It took just two months for teams to adjust to De La Cruz, who this year has only seen fastballs 46.5% of the time, compared to 47.3% of fastballs thrown to Judge.
It's no wonder: De La Cruz bats .255 against fastballs compared to just .211 against breaking stuff this year.
Once the most electric player in baseball, De La Cruz is now hitting at an average that doesn't survive in most major league lineups, and he was removed from the lineup for Wednesday's pivotal game against the Twins — one of only a few times that's happened since his call-up.
That decision to bench him comes as the Reds fight for one of the remaining Wild Card playoff spots in the National League.
The Reds are certainly ahead of schedule for even being in a tight Wild Card race this season. Expectations were very low in 2023, and it was largely because of the young talent they were slated to grow this year. So while it's understandable they'd sit the slumping De La Cruz to try and keep the playoff push alive, as they evaluate that talent and the future of the franchise, the once-billed top prospect in all of baseball has crashed down to a slightly worse version of former Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton, only with more home runs.
Like De La Cruz, Hamilton's first year in the majors was filled with excitement on the basepath (they both stole an average of 1 base per 3 games in their first year) and in the field. But that's about where the comparisons stop.
Hamilton's batting average hovered around .250, serviceable for a talented athlete, compared to De La Cruz's .231 so far this year. And Hamilton's wins above replacement (WAR; the stat that measures how many wins the player helped the team get above an average replacement player) was a 2.7. Elly's WAR has dipped to .7, and his defensive WAR is only .1; Hamilton's defensive WAR was 1.8 in his first year.
It's not just De La Cruz: Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott is facing a similar struggle.
Abbott, who wasn't as highly touted as De La Cruz coming up from the minors, also started strong. In five games during the month of June, Abbott's ERA was a stunning 1.21, among the best in the league for starters during that time.
Come July, Abbott leveled off with a 3.31 ERA — still elite, but then in August, the data started piling up for opposing teams and his ERA was an un-startable 6.08. It hasn't gotten much better in September, where Abbott currently holds a 5.79 ERA.
With Abbott, the Reds simply don't have any other starting pitching options, and he remains in the rotation as they finish out the final week and a half of the season.
In De La Cruz's case, there's another number that doesn't help him stay in the lineup: Among shortstops who have played at least 60 games at the position in 2023, EDLC has the worst fielding percentage (.950).
We're all rooting for this upstart Reds team, and fans want nothing more than for De La Cruz to once again spark the "electricidad" he brought in his first couple of months. But until he does, if the team wants to make the playoffs, they need to look at De La Cruz's role with a critical eye.
Article update: September 21 - 11:20 a.m.
Feedback heard - you all didn't like the word "bust." The headline has been changed to better reflect the current nature of this analysis.
There were a lot of Twitter (or X, I guess) replies to this story. I do love the hometown pride that people expressed. This article is not meant to permanently condemn Elly De La Cruz's chances to be great. The reality is, he hasn't been over the last few months. Fellow rookie, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, is an example of a rookie who has gotten better (July: .244; August: .255; September: .320, as of Sept. 21). Matt McClain, who was called up around the same time as Elly, has also performed better (.290 average at the plate, .969 fielding percentage before his injury in August). The Reds have the luxury of choice with some of its young talent, and they need to evaluate those choices if they want to make a playoff push.
Surely with some more time in the offseason, De La Cruz can reach his potential, but he's got some work to do to get there.
