COLUMBUS, Ohio — The most interesting political battle in Ohio is between two Republicans vying for the same leadership position — and whichever wins will determine the state's conservative ideology. The November election could impact if House Speaker Jason Stephens keeps his gavel or if Senate President Matt Huffman grabs it.
The future of Ohio politics won’t be determined by the presidential or U.S. Senate election results but rather by the legislative races.
Stephens is fighting to retain the gavel, but Huffman is moving to the house to challenge his reign.
(A lot of) Context to the squabbling
As the days go on, the 64-year-old Huffman and 53-year-old Stephens have been bickering about nearly everything: marijuana, the budget, education — but most importantly, speakership.
In March, Huffman announced a long-expected move — his interest in running to unseat Stephens in January 2025. He suggested to me that Stephens is not doing a good enough job and said that Democrats have reached out to him about a possible speaker run.
RELATED: Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman eyeing House speakership, 'talking' to Democrats
Huffman is at the end of his Senate term, having spent eight years as a senator with four as president. He is running unopposed for a House seat — and eyeing the speakership role that becomes available every two years.
Huffman and Stephens have been making polite jabs at each other during press gaggles, but Huffman was more forward while talking to reporters, showing a clear shift in rhetoric from the typical passive aggression.
"I think that it's very, very difficult to lead and legislate when he was elected in the manner that he was,” Huffman said. “I think if you're going to get elected that way, then it's difficult to say ‘I'm also the leader of the Republican caucus.’”
This drama stems from January 2023 and how Stephens came to power. The Republican caucus had previously chosen state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova) as speaker months before the full House floor vote.
Twenty-two Republicans (known "affectionately" by the other faction as the "Blue 22") and 32 Democrats voted for Stephens for speaker during the actual vote, while the majority of Republicans voted for Merrin. Stephens, still a conservative, is significantly more moderate than Merrin — he is also more moderate than Huffman.
Huffman said Stephens hasn't held as many sessions as there “traditionally” are, seemingly insinuating that the speaker wasn’t doing his job.
Click here to read more in-depth about the Republican infighting.
When chatting with Stephens in April for the first time since the election, I brought Huffman up.
"How are you feeling now that Senate President Matt Huffman has stated his interest in running against you next year?" I asked.
"Frankly, it would be better if the Senate President would pay attention to running the Senate instead of trying to run the House," Stephens responded.
It isn't just the shady comments and the announcement of running that Stephens and his allies are mad about — it's the money and campaigning.
Although neither leader spoke for this story, supporters on each side argued in their favor instead.
Analysis
The primary races in March were the most expensive elections Republican strategist Bob Clegg had ever seen.
"We had a lot of conflict between the House," Clegg said.
They were incredibly competitive and costly, thanks to the infighting. Stephens’ allies — like state Rep. DJ Swearingen (R-Huron) — had been condemned by the Republican Party after his speakership vote.
Swearingen joined me back in early March before the primary to discuss this topic ahead of the primary.
RELATED: Analysis: How GOP infighting is causing messy primaries, but the speaker could keep the gavel
"It's really, really unfortunate because the way I look at it, those were all dollars that instead of using against each other, we could have put towards the greater Republican good in November," Swearingen said.
Huffman has been in campaign talks for months now, gaining support from a significant faction of House representatives and national and statewide groups looking to oust Stephens.
Candidates, some of whom have now won, have told me that Huffman has helped support their bid to knock out the Stephens's team incumbents.
Four incumbents lost due to heavy campaigning against them — however, this may have saved Stephens from losing his job as leader.
My analysis found that Stephens could only afford to lose four seats.
If every single one of the speaker's allies remains loyal, he will be able to retain the gavel. However, numerous members of the General Assembly who didn't originally vote for Stephens have told me they plan to vote for him. There are several members who won open seats and have been endorsed by Stephens' allies, so it is possible they would support him, as well.
Would there be loyalty when candidates went through hell: vicious attack ads, millions of dollars spent against their faction and public ridicule?
"Hey, take the path of least resistance here," Clegg said. "I think it's so much easier to just go along with the majority of your caucus."
There is a slew of seats that will help determine the speakership.
"How many seats will the Democrats end up with after this election?" Clegg asked. "Because that will determine how many Republican votes Jason Stephens is going to need to get him re-elected speaker."
General election
I analyzed each of the most competitive seats. Fourteen races are key to winning.
Northeast Ohio has the majority of competitive general elections for Republicans. Most notably, six out of the 10 seats held by Republicans are now leaning Democratic. The four remaining are leaning Republican by a slight percentage.
According to data, the lawmakers that are in blue-leaning districts are Republican state Reps. Jim Thomas (Jackson Twp.), Nick Santucci (Howland Twp.), Bill Roemer (Richfield) and Gayle Manning (North Ridgeville). Plus, Districts 10 and 41 are open seats that were previously held by Republicans, but now the districts lean Democratic.
Some of the lawmakers, such as Manning, have always been in a more middle-ground district, which means they are used to a closer race.
Republican state Reps. Steve Demetriou (Bainbridge Twp.), Jack Daniels (New Franklin) and Andrea White (Kettering) are still in red areas, but they are tight. Heidi Workman, who beat incumbent Gail Pavliga (Portage County) in the primary, also has a tough race.
There aren't as many seats for Republicans to flip from the Dems, data-wise. Democratic state Reps. Daniel Troy (Willowick) and Rachel Baker (Cincinnati) have the two toughest races from Democrats, according to my analysis. District 28 is also an open seat formerly held by a Dem that could flip.
State Sen. Stephanie Kunze (Dublin) is moving over to the House and has one of the most competitive races. The seat she is running for is an open Democratic seat.
Let's do some math.
Stephens needs 50 votes.
It is expected for Democrats to flip four seats, meaning Stephens would need 32 Republicans to win the internal caucus vote. However, he would only need 14 Republicans to win the floor vote with Democrats.
"There is a narrative out there that the speaker somehow is against Republican candidates, that's absolutely false," Swearingen said.
Stephens has been attacked since the vote for partnering with Democrats, but Huffman isn't ruling them out for his campaign.
“I absolutely will be speaking to Democrats,” Huffman said in March, adding that all 99 members of the House get to vote for speaker. “I absolutely will be – a few of those folks have contacted me first thing Wednesday morning.”
House Minority Leader Allison Russo (D-Upper Arlington) was confused when I brought this up to her in the spring.
"That was certainly news to me," Russo responded. "I think any good faith, honest negotiations about the future direction of this state, and certainly here in the House, starts with the Democratic leadership team — and anything that doesn't start with that, frankly, it's just an effort to get ahead."
Ideology
Stephens supports public school funding, union rights and following what the voters chose in the November election on abortion and marijuana. Stephens does support the private school voucher system to an extent but wants to fully fund public education. He also does not want to overhaul the college education system and didn't think the Aug. special election was a good idea. He has tried to protect against other "anti-Democratic" proposals that the Senate has sent to the House, such as making it more difficult for citizens to get issues on their local ballot. He is interested in lowering taxes but has not said anything about completely repealing the income tax, just that he supports a flat tax.
"This is a guy who can look at issues from a very objective standpoint and try to help everybody come together," Swearingen said.
“The problem is that we have a House, in my opinion, that has 67 Republicans — that in many ways is controlled by the Democratic Party,“ Senate President Matt Huffman said in May.
So, what could Ohio look like under a Huffman speakership? Well, the state could look vastly different.
Huffman differs from Stephens on each of those issues. He did help fund public schools, but he is more interested in legislation around the voucher system. Also, he would likely eliminate the income tax, which could double the sales tax. Huffman does want to change universities to prevent against so-called liberal bias and did support the August election from the beginning — even suggesting that the amendment to raise the threshold could be on a future ballot. His leadership team has said that voters didn't actually know what they were voting for when they legalized marijuana, so they should be able to change the policy.
Clegg thinks Huffman would be a more effective leader.
"The Senate is much more efficient in the way they do things," the strategist said.
Clegg doesn’t think Stephens can get a majority of Republicans.
So, why not just cancel the internal vote?
"They would censure him based on the fact that you had this many Republicans voting with the Democrats to make him speaker," he said.
Swearingen doesn't think it will get that far.
"Would you still vote for him in January," I asked Swearingen.
"If he doesn't win the caucus vote?" the lawmaker responded. "I don't expect for there to be any other type of vote in January."
