CINCINNATI — Publix Supermarkets Inc. will add 263,000 square feet to Northern Kentucky’s retail landscape with the first wave of its Greater Cincinnati invasion.
The Kroger Co. is adding 283,000 square feet with a trio of projects that should clear up any doubt over whether Kroger will defend its home turf.
The WCPO 9 I-Team reviewed planning documents and media statements from Kroger and Publix to map a list of store investments from both companies:
The map shows Publix will establish a ring of retail outlets, mostly outside the I-275 loop, while Kroger is building two new stores in Edgewood and Newport, while renovating a third in Cold Spring.
“They’re walking into a tough battle,” said Burt Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group, a New York-based consultant that advises U.S. and global retail chains. “It’s the proverbial business beachhead that’s going to be tough to break through.”
Kroger has a 50.1% market share in Greater Cincinnati, with 71 stores, according to Chain Store Guide. That’s more than double Walmart’s 17.2% share from 20 local stores and six times Meijer’s 8.1% share from 12 stores.
Flickinger said Kroger overwhelms its Cincinnati rivals with more stores, a growing digital platform and a robust loyalty program that includes fuel points and pharmacy offerings.
Video: See what the experts predicted as Publix takes on Kroger in its hometown
“Our studies have shown that a family of five with a rescue pet or so could save $3,000 to $5,000 a year," Flickinger said. "You can't achieve those kinds of savings at Publix. Publix really needs to get to at least two dozen stores to get to any kind of meaningful scale” in Cincinnati.
Publix has achieved double-digit market share in at least two cities where it competes head-to-head against Kroger. In Nashville, its 15.9% share ranks third behind Kroger (32.7%) and Walmart (24.4%). In Atlanta, Publix ranks second with a 22.5% share, compared to Kroger’s 26%.
“They’re very customer-focused,” said Bryan Buechner, assistant professor of marketing at Xavier University. “They have an assortment that is really unique. Their customers love their private label brands. So, there’s a lot of things that Publix does well that I think is a little bit different than Kroger.”
Buechner thinks Publix can get to 10% market share in Greater Cincinnati if it expands into Ohio and uses specialty products like its famous “Pub Subs” to turn younger, upscale consumers into fans of the Publix experience.
As for Kroger, Buechner expects the Cincinnati-base grocery giant will remain dominant in its hometown, with a slightly smaller market share and a new kind of rival that might inspire change.
“It’s certainly going to keep them on their toes,” Buechner said, “and make them think about, ‘What are we offering beyond price.’”
