CINCINNATI — The stakes are high on Game Dey for the Cincinnati Bengals, beyond their on-field performance against their opponent.
The team’s lease with Hamilton County expires in 2026 and discussions about who pays for expensive repairs and upgrades to Paycor Stadium have already begun. Experts say how well the Bengals perform this season could impact how much taxpayers are willing to spend.
“I think if they’re playing well, you’ll see certainly a little bit more of an appetite for considering maybe a new stadium,” said Northern Kentucky University professor of sports business Joe Cobbs, who teaches a class on sports public financing called Moneyball.
“There’s going to be some type of investment … on the part of the taxpayer, and it’s going to be much more scrutinized if the team is not playing well,” Cobbs said.
The county and the Bengals hired Los Angeles-based architecture and design firm Gensler Sports to evaluate the stadium. The firm released a capital assessment report in April 2022, recommending $493.7 million in basic repairs to the aging structure such as fixing steel rails and ramps, replacing seats and upgrading electric and plumbing systems.
That number does not include the potential $200 to $300 million more for future upgrades like luxury lounges, high-end food or drink and new signs and scoreboards.
WCPO obtained an early version of the master plan in August 2022. It included standing-room-only decks and drink rails, a live sports betting club, a nightclub, a skybridge to connect upper concourses, field goal and end zone cameras and changes to seating including banquettes.
NFL fans are enjoying in these high-end amenities in other new stadiums, along with robust entertainment districts.
“Within five, six years, you will have been eclipsed by every other NFL stadium and the fans are not going to enjoy the experience," project consultant Tom Gabelman told the Hamilton County Commissioners at an April 2023 meeting.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills all recently unveiled plans for new stadiums.
Building a new stadium isn't completely out of the question in Cincinnati.The county commissioners asked in April for the master plan to include options for a new stadium as well as for renovations to the current stadium so they can see costs for both options.
Commission President Alicia Reece has floated the idea of a domed stadium to allow the county to have more concerts and events beyond football season, which would bring in more revenue.
“Then the question is how much of that does Mike Brown expect Hamilton County to pay?” asked Andrew Zimbalist, an economics professor at Smith College, who has consulted in the sports industry for players' associations, cities, companies, teams and leagues.
A Bengals spokesperson declined to comment on lease negotiations.
A Hamilton County spokesperson did not answer questions about how often officials are meeting with team representatives about a new lease or stadium upgrades.
“We anticipate that lease discussions will be advanced as the stadium master plan is completed in the coming months and the cost estimate comes into focus,” according to a statement from county spokesperson Bridget Doherty. “The county is considering multiple revenue sources, including the state, regarding the future renovation of Paycor Stadium.”
In August 2000, Paul Brown Stadium opened to fans who were struck by the expansive views and post-modern, open-air design. The structure won an architectural award and became an iconic part of the downtown skyline.
Now as the stadium enters its third decade of use, it is considered middle-aged by NFL standards.
“By NFL standards, yeah I’d say it's pushing old,” Cobbs said. “But many teams have pushed for new stadiums once they’re getting close to the 20-year mark knowing that it’s going to be a several year negotiation.”
During the NFL's annual meetings last March, Bengals executive vice president Katie Blackburn said the team is planning to do some improvements themselves to show "that we're willing to invest a little bit of our own here."
“I think we have a great stadium. Our stadium has been a great asset to the area and we think if we can keep it up to a certain level it can serve us well for a while longer," Blackburn said. "(A new stadium is) a big project. And more power to Tennessee and New York for going that direction, but we feel our stadium has been a great asset and can be useful for a while."
The county owns the stadium, pays for it through a sales tax,and is committed to spend roughly $5 million per year for capital repairs, replacements, and improvements, according to the June 2019 memorandum of understanding with the team.
Under its current lease, the Bengals could ask the county to pay for tens of millions in new stadium enhancements starting in July 2024 such as ticketless entry, a holographic replay system, stadium self-cleaning machines, a new playing field surface, next-generation sound and video and premium seating options that are different from current private suites or club seating.
That's unless the county negotiates a new lease before then.
“There’s going to be an investment on the part of the county and they need to be able to justify to the taxpayers why that investment is important,” Cobbs said. “The best negotiating strategy that you have is when you’re willing to walk away … so if the county isn’t willing to walk away at all, and the Bengals know that, then they probably are going to get outmaneuvered.”
“There are quite a few cities that would love to have an NFL franchise,” Cobbs added.
Whatever the final price tag is for renovations, or a new stadium, the public should expect massive cost overruns, Zimbalist said.
“I will guarantee it whether those cost overruns are 20 or 30 or 50 percent, or even more,” Zimbalist said. “What always happens is you start with a low number, you low ball your estimates.”
The price tag for basic repairs to Paycor Stadium is $493.7 million (in 2021 dollars),according to the capital assessment released in April 2022.
But WCPO obtained two draft copies of that report, from November 2021 and January 2022 through a public records request. The January draft report shows a significantly higher stadium repair cost at $566 million.
That means $72 million in repairs was cut from the report before it was released to the public.
The initial price tag is always minimized, Zimbalist said.
“You don't put a lot of bells and whistles into the architectural design in order to get political approval … once you have political buy-in, you say, oh gee ... wouldn't it be nice to have another restaurant within the facility,” Zimbalist said. “That together with inflation and the length of time that transpires between when the initial idea came out, and when you're finally done with it all, it generally can lead to really, really large cost overruns, 50 percent and up.”
Taxpayers will be much more willing to spend public dollars on a winning Bengals team, than a losing one, experts said.
“All of this is is based on emotion, right,” Zimbalist said. “If politicians are going to sell this to their constituents, they want a constituent base that loves the Bengals, that's excited about the Bengals … when a team does well, it's easier to get public funding.”
If the Bengals have a winning season, and hopefully another run at the Super Bowl, it’s easier for county commissioners to justify the expense of a new stadium or upgrades, Cobbs said.
“I think the county commissioners are rooting for the Bengals,” Cobbs said. “There’s going to be a portion of the taxpayers who, no matter how good the Bengals do, those taxpayers are going say ‘this is not a good use of my money.’ And the commissioners are still commissioners for those constituents too, so they have to deal with that pressure.”
The Bengals performance will also impact how public, or private, the lease negotiations become, Cobbs said.
A winning Bengals team will feel more confident about speaking publicly about the upgrades they feel are necessary for their continued success, Cobbs said.
“I’m sure the stadium negotiation is on their mind all the time in … the top levels of the front office,” Cobbs said.
“Not everybody who passes taxes is necessarily a football fan but when the football team does well it elevates our city … and it creates excitement around the city about being affiliated with a winning team,” Cobb said.
