CINCINNATI — It’s the question every Bengals fan is asking these days: Can the Cincinnati Bengals keep Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins from leaving the building?
A better question might be: Who else will leave so Chase and Higgins can stay?
“These are high-rent problems to have so many good players that you that you need to pay. It means you have a lot of talent on your roster,” said Kurt Badenhausen, a sports journalist who follows NFL contracts for Sportico. “You can do the salary-cap gymnastics to make it work, but you’re going to have to take from other parts of the team.”
As every Bengals fan knows, the team is facing a momentous off-season that could determine whether it competes for championships or backslides toward mediocrity. To keep its biggest stars, many expect the Bengals to make tough decisions – like Joe Mixon’s 2024 trade to the Houston Texans.
“I think the decision to let some players go like Mixon and some of their defensive stars, it really came down to the expectation that they were going to eventually have to pay their wide receivers,” said Adam Beissel, an assistant professor at Miami University. “I think the Bengals have really shifted their philosophy to one that aligns with most other professional sport teams that are willing to spend when their windows are viable.”
The Bengals have a generational talent at quarterback. Joe Burrow has publicly campaigned to keep his favorite targets in the fold. He’s even hinted at modifying his contract so Chase and Higgins can stay.
“You don’t want to make a living out of letting great players leave the building,” Burrow said after the Bengals beat the Steelers on Dec. 31. “That’s why you have to do everything you can to get those deals done early.”
Higgins brings the most urgency. He’ll be a free agent in March unless the Bengals strike a long-term deal or tag him as a franchise player for a second straight year. Experts say he could get more than $25 million a year by moving to another team.
“The problem with Tee Higgins is he’s probably the top wide receiver available right now,” Badenhausen said. “It’s a very super-premium position in the NFL. So, you’re obviously not going to get him on the cheap. It’s going to be a full market-value contract.”
Chase is arguably the best receiver in the NFL and he wants to be paid like it. That means a contract worth more than the $140 million, four-year deal signed by Justin Jefferson with the Minnesota Vikings. And not just a little more.
“If I want to beat Justin, I’ll beat the sh** out of Justin,” Chase memorably quipped in September.
To keep Chase, Badenhausen said the Bengals will likely have to modify its long-time stance on guaranteed contracts. Cincinnati is known for limiting guarantees to first-year signing bonuses, although it bent the rule for Burrow – whose 5-year, $275 million contract includes $219 million guaranteed.
“It’s all about leverage,” Badenhausen said. “The Bengals have been hesitant in the past to really guarantee significant money, but when you’re talking about … what Ja’Marr Chase is going to be able to command, you are going to have to make concessions.”
But that could pose problems for the Bengals, which could be required by the NFL to place Chase guarantees in escrow.
Some critics have argued the NFL escrow rule gives an advantage to the sport’s richest owners, who have more cash flow than the family-owned Bengals. Although the team has never publicly complained about the rule, it did sell naming rights for Paycor Stadium in the same year Joe Burrow signed his guaranteed deal.
It isn’t clear whether the Paycor deal, valued at $66.7 million over 16 years, was struck to fund Burrow’s escrow. But many called the Bengals home “Pay Joe Stadium” when the deal was announced.
Badenhausen doesn’t think the Bengals are hurting for cash, thanks to the roughly $400 million it receives annually from NFL media rights. But he adds the NFL’s salary cap rules could be tricky for the team.
“You can pay these guys, but you have to take from the other parts of the roster,” he said.
The NFL salary cap is intended to ensure that all teams pay players roughly the same amount each year. The 2025 cap is expected to exceed $265 million, but individual team amounts will vary because teams can carry over unused cap space from year to year. Teams that spend over the cap can see the following year’s cap reduced.
The Bengals are in good shape for this year’s cap, ranking 12th in the NFL with $53.9 million in cap space available, according to Spotrac. Next year, the Bengals rank fifth with nearly $225 million available.
But it’s easy to see how quickly that can change when big deals are signed.
For example, the Miami Dolphins rank 29th with negative cap space of $14.2 million this year, after signing two receivers in 2024 to contracts averaging $58 million in annual pay. The combined cap hit this year for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is $36.7 million. Add in Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins spend more than 27% of its cap on three players.
“You can do it, but you're going to have to hit on the draft (and) fill the roster with guys that are on rookie contracts,” Badenhausen said.
Mixon is an example of how that could work for the Bengals. Traded to Houston in exchange for a 7th-round 2024 draft pick in 2024, Mixon earned $9.4 million for the Texans this year. Chase Brown, drafted by the Bengals in 2023, emerged as a solid replacement for $1.1 million. But the Bengals also signed free agent running back Zack Moss in 2024 to a two-year deal worth $8 million. The cap hit for Moss and Brown is $5.9 million this year, compared to $9.5 million for Mixon in Houston.
Watching it all unfold from Miami University, Adam Beissel thinks the Bengals are in a good place to maximize Burrow’s potential as a premier NFL quarterback without damaging the rest of the team in the process.
“I think it could be argued that the Bengals are in their window,” Beissel said. “It wouldn't surprise us that they would enter the offseason looking to not only re-sign their current crop of wide receivers and extend Ja'Marr Chase but also be active in free agency. The Kansas City Chiefs are in one of the smallest markets in North America. They've won back-to-back Super Bowls and they have one of the highest salaries of any team in the NFL.”
