If you’re under 35, live in Ohio and vote, welcome to one of the most powerful voting blocs in the nation.
Millennials could choose the next president of the United States. Ohio will be the most crucial state in the race next year, even more important than 2012, political experts say.
In a recent study the U.S. Census Bureau estimated that 21.9 percent of Ohio’s population were young adults ages 18 to 34.
How many millennials will vote in the 2015 election when legalizing marijuana is the key issue? Or in 2016 for the hugely important presidential contest? That is the big unknown question.
And perhaps more importantly: What, and who, will millennials vote for?
Scroll to the bottom of this article to take a quiz to find out what kind of millennial voter you are (or would be if you were a millennial).
If you’re a millennial voter, read below to find out what type of voter you are, and what issues you care about (and if you're not a millennial voter, find out what the voters who could decide our next president care about).
Because millennial voters in Ohio and Hamilton County will be the ultimate power voting bloc in the 2016 presidential election, WCPO is writing a series of stories in the coming weeks about their politics, voting habits and public service.
Libertarians, aka Republican-Lite
Who does this appeal to? Foreign-born college students, budding entrepreneurs, socially liberal Republicans, pacifists and anyone who supports a free market, individual rights and less government.
Most popular activities to recruit new members? Dunk tank throws for correct answers to Constitutional questions; a free speech wall celebrating opinions from offensive to entertaining; and a blindfolded pin the drone on the map.
“Pin the drone on the map was a huge hit,” said Michael Esch, president of the University of Cincinnati Libertarians. “They were blindfolded and they pinned a flag on a map. If it landed on a country where the U.S. has drones, then they got a prize. A lot of people got prizes.”
How is the group growing? Libertarians started a chapter at UC last year and now have 50 members and an email list of 400. Each event nets 100 new student email sign-ups, Esch said.
Students are curious and intrigued by the party’s socially liberal stance. “Its kind of Republicanism without the social stigma,” said UC political science professor David Niven.
Swing Voters, aka Independents
Favorite saying? “I don’t belong to a political party.”
Why don't they like political parties? “If they feel their issue profile isn’t well represented by either party, they may find a place in a Libertarian camp … or start identifying more as Independents. This results in a larger group of swing voters,” said Dan Birdsong, a University of Dayton political science lecturer.
What’s their political family tree? Many were electrified with Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign, which targeted young voters. But they throttled back support for Obama in 2012, Birdsong said. “They may have started with the Democratic ticket and softened … some of them have moved to Republican,” he said.
What’s their real family tree? Often it takes millennials a few years to move away from their parents’ politics. Just ask Chris Dalton, a senior political science major at UC. He’s a die-hard Democrat now, but he didn’t start out that way. In 2008, when he was in high school, he favored Republican presidential candidate John McCain.
“Those were my formative years,” he said. “At around 17 I decided that I didn’t share the same beliefs as the Republican party.”
One-issue Voters, aka, It’s All or Nothing
Who this appeals to: Anyone intensely passionate about one issue, such as immigration, the Black Lives Matter movement, abortion rights, and rights of the gay, lesbian and transgender community.
Why is this group growing?: Millennials are the most diverse generation in history, so they care about equal rights and fair treatment. “There are more of these voters because there are more of these big issues,” said Dennis Devlin, owner of Consumer Clarity, a Cincinnati firm that specializes in marketing to millennials.
“These social issues are popping up with a lot of support and fervor and media attention, he said. “And a lot of the energy around them in terms pushing them to be major issues is coming from millennials.”
Cody Rizzuto, political director of Greater Cincinnati Young Republicans
How will they affect the 2012 election? Just ask Cody Rizzuto, political director of Greater Cincinnati Young Republicans. “I knew a lot of people in Ohio who said ‘I agree with everything that Mitt Romney says, but he’s not going to support gay marriage. I have a gay friend, and I can’t vote for him.'”
“They agreed with everything he said about foreign and economic policy, but they wouldn’t vote for him because of that one social issue,” he said.
Who may be the biggest bloc of one-issue voters in 2016? See below.
I’m Buried In College Debt Voters:
Favorite question for candidates? Why does college cost so much?
How they vote? Strictly on economic policy. Because sadly enough, they have to.
What issues do they care about?: Economic growth. Middle America. Job creation. Student loans. College affordability. Health care.
In the words of Chris Dalton: “Being a student who is about to graduate and about to pay off $40,000 in loans, this is critically important.”
How Dennis Devlin describes them: “They are just barely out of school… Typically single. Typically in debt. Sadly, typically a lot of debt. They are typically finding a lot of difficulty finding permanent full-time work that is a career-oriented job.”
What are their goals?: Develop an identity. Put off marriage. Find their way in the world. Move out of their parents’ house.
The Make-the-World-A-Better-Place Voter:
Favorite political motto(s)? Hope and change
What issues do they care about? Climate change. Poverty. World hunger. School shootings. Gun violence. Racial disparity.
As Millenials age they care more about: Local government and foreign policy.
And less about: Themselves.
Brooke Smith, leader of Hamilton County Young Democrats
In the words of Brooke Smith, leader of Hamilton County Young Democrats: “We are, to our fault I think, a very selfish generation. So we should think about things outside of ourselves … Just because it doesn’t affect your day-to-day life, specifically lowering your loan payments or reducing your commute to work, or whatever it may be, (these issues) still do directly affect you …Medicare and Medicaid do directly affect you, because your grandparents and parents are aging.”
What political message works? A tug-at-the-heartstrings, better future, change message. They want a candidate who is different and captures their imagination. That’s why some are drawn to Donald Trump.
“He’s an outsider, not a career politician, and he is certainly promising a lot of change,” Devlin said. “Sometimes it is hard-to-believe kind of change … and whether that’s hopeful change or not is open to debate.”
